|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
CLEM SUNTER – SCENARIO PLANNER |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
brand ambassador for the destination |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
CLEM’S SHOW 2009 |
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
INTRODUCTION |
|
|||||||||
|
|
This page provides a link to Clem’s official page Mind Of A Fox and includes below comments
gleaned |
|
|||||||||
|
|
from the press as well as links to articles in the
print media. |
|
|||||||||
|
|
2009 |
|
|||||||||
|
|
1. Three Scenarios |
|
|||||||||
|
|
At his
talk in Muizenberg in April 2009 Clem touted three scenarios
for the economy viz: "Hard Times" - a U
curve model to recovery where difficult and “messy” times would continue for
the next four or five years |
|
|||||||||
|
|
– a bit like the world experienced from 1942 to 1966. The
second, “New Balls Please” or a V curve |
|
|||||||||
|
|
scenario has a period “where the game recovers quicker”. The third
scenario is “The Perfect Storm”, |
|
|||||||||
|
|
or an extended U, “where there is no recovery, and the storm goes on and
on. He said a “Hard Times” |
|
|||||||||
|
|
outlook
had a 60% chance of happening; a V-shaped recovery was a 30% possibility;
with a “Perfect |
|
|||||||||
|
|
Storm” an
outside bet at 10%. |
|
|||||||||
|
|
2. Flags |
|
|||||||||
|
|
(a). |
|
|||||||||
|
|
do better
next year after the upgrading of infrastructure for the Fifa
World Cup, according to the World |
|
|||||||||
|
|
Economic
Forum (WEF). The WEF yesterday released its 2009/10 global competitiveness
index, |
|
|||||||||
|
|
ranking |
|
|||||||||
|
|
Note: Scenario Planner Clem Sunter considers this to be a positive flag ito |
|
|||||||||
|
|
in the 'Premier League' and moving away from the 'Relegation
Zone'. Click to
read more... |
|
|||||||||
|
|
(b) Click
on this link to read an interview with Clem www.timeslive.co.za/business/article164631.ece |
|
|||||||||
|
|
2010 |
|
|
||||||||
|
|
The Masque Theatre, Muizenberg on |
|
|||||||||
|
|
Clem addressed
a capacity audience on the subject |
|
|||||||||
|
|
The general thrust of this talk is as per the
timeslive link at (2) above. What he did add however
was
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
a new term - that the road to recovery will be “corrugated” in nature.
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
Clem’s talk on this
occasion focused on the aftermath of the FIFA 2010 World Cup. Click here for |
|
|||||||||
|
|
the programme and here for a summary by Kim Kruyshaar of the Scenic South web site. After |
|
|||||||||
|
|
Lesley Rochat’s
talk which followed Clem’s, Gordon Metter of the |
|
|||||||||
|
|
South Peninsula Chapter concluded with 5 points to take home viz: |
|
|||||||||
|
|
1. The importance of building on the enthusiasm and commitment created by the World Cup and not to |
|
|||||||||
|
|
let the opportunity slip away. |
|
|||||||||
|
|
2. SA possibly in for a V type
recovery from the recession - shorter period of recovery than in the |
|
|||||||||
|
|
and |
|
|||||||||
|
|
3. Our part of the |
|
|||||||||
|
|
We need to use this to launch a major tourist promotion for our area. |
|
|||||||||
|
|
4. We have whales, sharks and beautiful beaches to attract
tourists - looking after the ecology and the state |
|
|||||||||
|
|
of the landscape is important visually and also economically |
|
|||||||||
|
|
5. Look for centres of excellence in our area - promote these and further develop fledgling ones. |
|
|||||||||
|
|
Lallette McGillewie
the school’s PRO then unveiled the design
for the life-size female whale tail which will be |
|
|||||||||
|
|
built in the school
grounds. |
|
|||||||||
|
|
27 October 2010 in Sandton |
|
|||||||||
|
|
Speaking at |
|
|||||||||
|
|
planning, foresees extended tough times ahead - for another five
years at least. And this is due to the |
|
|||||||||
|
|
festering magnitude of debt worldwide that was at first
attributable to banks, but now governments. He says a |
|
|||||||||
|
|
post-recovery
world means the disappearance of cheap resources and possibly an age where
$200 (R1 400) |
|
|||||||||
|
|
a barrel oil will be commonplace. Sunter, who
runs the chairman's fund at Anglo American, was the guest |
|
|||||||||
|
|
speaker. |
|
|||||||||
|
|
Visit this link for the article - http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=553&fArticleId=5705777 |
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|||||||||